Coping with Market Smackdowns

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By Mark Seed, myownadvisor

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Hey Everyone,

Welcome to some new Weekend Reading, the market smackdown edition.

In case you missed any recent posts, here they are!

Before I started semi-retirement/part-time work this month, I shared some big retirement mistakes I hope to avoid in the coming years.

After reading about a 23-year-old athlete earning $2 million, I wondered if he was “set for life”?

And finally, I shared our latest dividend income update below – despite the stock market going down our income stream went up! Continue Reading…

Extremes breed Opposites

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Darling, I don’t know
Why I go to extremes
Too high or too low
There ain’t no in-betweens
And if I stand or I fall
It’s all or nothing at all
Darling, I don’t know
Why I go to extremes

 

  • I Go to Extremes, by Billy Joel
Image Shutterstock, courtesy of Outcome

By Noah Solomon

Special to Financial Independence Hub

The stock market crash of 1929, which was followed by the Great Depression, was arguably the best thing to happen to investors in the history of modern markets.

I am in no way suggesting that investors took pleasure in having their life savings largely obliterated, nor am I implying that bear markets are enjoyable. However, the tremendous pain that people experienced left them with a deep distrust of stocks that lasted for decades. It was this wariness that kept valuations in check, thereby paving the way for strong returns.

Both the passage of time and rising markets eventually led investors to relinquish their pessimism. Eventually, acceptance morphed into adulation, the widespread view that stocks harbored no risk, and an “it can only go up” mindset that culminated in the late 1990s tech bubble. This excessive optimism caused valuations to become untethered from reality, with the S&P 500 Index reaching its highest valuation in history and huge market capitalizations being awarded to companies with little or no earnings.

The irrational enthusiasm which created and propelled one of the greatest bubbles in modern history also set the stage for its ultimate demise in the form of a painfully long and deep bear market. Over shorter periods, fear can result in missed opportunities and regret while greed may get rewarded. However, over the long term, starting points of excessive pessimism set the stage for healthy markets while starting points of excessive optimism pave the way for disappointment. This observation is captured in the following graph, which clearly demonstrates that higher starting valuations lead to lower returns, and vice versa.

S&P 500 Index: PE Ratio vs. 10-Year Annualized Returns

 

 

 

This relationship brings to mind the following guiding principles of legendary investor Howard Marks:

  • It’s not what you buy, it’s what you pay that counts.  
  • Good investing doesn’t come from buying good things, but from buying things well.  
  • There’s no asset so good that it can’t become overpriced and thus dangerous, and there are few assets that are so bad that they can’t get cheap enough to be a bargain.  
  • The riskiest thing in the world is the belief that there’s no risk.

Forget Forecasting: Context is Everything

I know that booms, recessions, bull markets, and bear markets have happened and that they will happen. Where I run into trouble is knowing when they will happen. I am in good company when it comes to this deficiency, as economic forecasting has by and large proven to be an exercise in futility. As famed economist John Kenneth Galbraith stated, “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable”.

Given that predicting when changes in economic conditions will occur is a fool’s errand, investors should instead concern themselves with how markets will react if they occur. Importantly the same change can have a vastly different effect on markets depending on where valuations stand. Specifically, stock market multiples can be a gauge of the extent to which prices will decline in reaction to an adverse shift in the economic backdrop. Continue Reading…

New to a RRIF? Make sure you have enough cash and consider dialing down risk

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My latest MoneySense Retired Money column has just been published and covers something that was a new experience for me: starting and managing a RRIF or Registered Retirement Income Fund.

You can find the full column by clicking on the highlighted headline: How to make sure you have enough money to fund your RRIF withdrawals. 

At the end of the year you turn 71, those with RRSPs are required either to cash them out  (not recommended from the standpoint of taxes), to to annuitize orto convert it into a RRIF, or Registered Retirement Income Fund. The latter is the most popular action and recommended by experts like The Successful Investor’s Patrick McKeough.

            However,  as I’ve discovered since my own RRIF started up this past January, the sweetness of the RRSP tax deduction over the decades is offset by the sourness of having to pay taxable withdrawals on your new RRIF.

            In my case, I am a DIY investor who uses one of the big-bank discount brokers to self-manage the taxable distributions and to manage the remaining investments, most of them carryovers from the RRSP.  While accumulating funds in an RRSP is a matter of making annual contributions and reinvesting dividends and interest, a RRIF represents a departure from the psychology needed to build an RRSP for the future. Suddenly, regular selling is necessary. The RRIF rules mean that in the first year you’ll have to withdraw something like 5.28% of what your balance was at the start of the year (rising to 5.4% at age 72 and every upwards each passing year).

Payments can quarterly, monthly or any frequency you choose

          If you choose monthly payments, as I did, that means every month you have to have 1/12th of the required annual distribution in the form of ready cash to be whooshed out monthly on whatever date you specify. As most retirees will be getting other pensions near the end of the month, I chose mid-month for the RRIF distribution. You also need to choose the percentage of tax you wish to pay to Canada Revenue Agency: I picked 30%, which automatically leaves your account each month. The remaining 70% transfers out into your main chequing account, ideally at the same financial institution where the RRIF is held: It’s easier that way.

Setting regular tax payments

          You also need to choose the percentage of tax you wish to pay to Canada Revenue Agency: I picked 30%, which automatically leaves your account each month. The remaining 70% transfers out into your main chequing account, ideally at the same financial institution where the RRIF is held: It’s easier that way. Sure, you could set the tax at 10% or 20% but if you have other sources of taxable income, like taxable dividends and other pensions, I’d rather not have the unpleasant surprise of a larger-than-expected tax bill a year from April. Once you have a year of RRIFing under your belt, you may see fit to adjust the 30% upwards or downwards. Continue Reading…

Retirement Club for Canadians 

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By Dale Roberts

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Hi, it’s Dale Roberts here. You know me from Cut The Crap Investing. My blog posts are often shared on Findependence Hub. 

Similar to Jonathan Chevreau I have a keen interest in helping Canadians prepare for retirement and make the most of retirement once they reach that wonderful stage in life. 

Too many Canadians enter retirement with some sense of anxiety. They may fear that they will outlast their money. They might not have created the all important life plan. 

More and more Canadians have self-directed their investment accounts. Now they need a resource that helps them set the course, and keep the course for a successful retirement. 

That’s why we created Retirement Club. Retirement Club for Canadians 

What is Retirement Club? 

Retirement Club is a community of like-minded Canadian retirees and near retirees. 

A successful retirement starts with financial security. Let’s call that fiscal fitness. We cover the financial essentials, in jargon-free plain-speak with clear demonstrations. You’ll learn how to spend down your portfolios in an efficient fashion. You’ll learn how to use free-use retirement calculators that create optimal retirement cash flow plans. That is, how to spend from your investment accounts, working in concert with CPP, OAS, pensions, and other income. 

The retirement portfolio will be discussed in detail. We need to align each account’s risk level to the task at hand: dictated by that retirement cash flow plan. 

As you may know, at Cut The Crap Investing I’ve offered a unique approach to managing risk: using lower volatility and defensive equities (consumer staples, healthcare and utilities) in concert with traditional risk managers such as cash, bonds, GICs, gold, annuities and more. During the volatility of 2025, these defensive assets have been the top performers. 

Of course the financial topics are numerous, from wills and estates, to insurance, tax tips, healthcare costs and more.

Retirement by design

Next comes the life plan. Each of us will decide on our level of travel and entertainment, family time, leisure and living life full of purpose. We’ll provide and share lifestyle inspiration. We’re doing it right when financial security enables a rich and rewarding lifestyle. We need to retire with vitality and purpose. How do we replace the ‘good stuff’ we got out of our working years? 

How do we learn and connect? 

At a minimum we’ll have …  

  • A monthly one hour Zoom presentation (the next one is April 25th at noon).
  • A monthly newsletter 

The Zoom presentations are lively and interactive. They start with a learning session but move on with Clubbers asking questions and taking part in break out sessions. We end with a 15 minute ‘after party.’ It’s a Club environment. 

Our Community Captain, Brent Schmidt of Strategic Fuel, l creates an engaging club experience.  Continue Reading…

How to stay calm and Invest confidently amid Stock Market Fluctuations

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Letting unnecessary stock market worries take hold of your investment decisions can lead to much bigger problems than just finding stocks to buy

TSInetwork.ca

Our early ancestors had to be on guard against threats in their environment. They were under constant threat. At night, if you woke to every sound from the bushes, you lost some sleep, but you cut your risk of being eaten by a lion or killed by an enemy. Today we face much less risk from animal predators and human marauders. But many people still carry this hair-trigger fear response. We spend more time than we should worrying about things that will never happen. This includes stock market worries.

That’s especially true of investors, who generally think more about the future than other people. It’s true all the more of subscribers to our newsletters and members of my Inner Circle service.

Understand stock market worries and risk so you can put everything in perspective

That’s because many of you are the kind of people who seek out investment information from a variety of written sources, where it’s much more extensive and detailed than what you get from a glance at the headlines, the evening news or cable TV. However, some of that information is biased, overblown or incorrect.

This doesn’t mean you should ignore potential threats. You just need to put them in perspective.

Learn what experienced investors do about common stock market worries

There is never a shortage of ways to ease your stock market worries. “You never go broke taking a profit,” is a favourite of brokers I’ve met over the years. They used them to spur their clients to do more trades, to boost their own commission income.

Our view now is that stocks are still a good place for your money, if you can afford to stay invested for several years. If you expect you will need to take money out of your portfolio, you should think about selling sooner than you need to.

Look beyond immediate stock market movements to help reduce your anxiety and stock market worries

Stock market trends are the general direction in which the stock market is heading. These market trends are dictated by a number of factors: what sector investors favour at the moment, economic and world news, interest rates and other trends from industries such as technology or resources, and so on. These trends could be positive or negative, and they could lead to a huge boom for a stock market. They could also lead to a big downturn. Continue Reading…